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We Said It FirstOn May 21, Human Potential Left published an essay forecasting that a storm was coming that would rock the Bush Administration. In a piece entitled, "It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn," I wrote:"A storm is coming in the Fall of 2003 and in 2004 that will rock the Bush Administration, and dramatically reshape this kind of thinking. Hence, the 2004 Presidential Election is very much up for grabs, as events over the next 18 months will demonstrate. George Bush is likely facing the challenge of his lifetime, and, based on what we've witnessed so far, I'm far from convinced that he has the intelligence, wisdom or emotional flexibility to successfully weather this gathering storm. Hence, his re-election should very much be considered in doubt." The complete article can be found by clicking here. My guess is that the furor around the WMD/manipulation of intelligence stories will only grow from here, and that the Bush Administration will also be forced to deal with a number of additional emerging crises that will eventually undermine public support for its policies, and faith in Dubya's leadership. My guess is that Dick Cheney will leave office several months before Dubya heads back to Crawford. My guess is that the next President of the United States will be a Democrat, probably John Kerry or Howard Dean - although I'm not quite ready to make a formal forecast of the Presidential race in July of 2003. I am, however, extremely comfortable forecasting that Bush's and Cheney's troubles have just begun. Matthew Carnicelli © 2003. All rights reserved. Originally published July 16, 2003; revised July 19, 2003. |